Over 80% of the world’s iron ore exports come from three countries: Australia with 56% market share of global exports (based on 2019 data), Brazil with 22% and South Africa with 4%. Canada and Peru are the only other countries with more than 1% market share. The biggest loser of market share this decade has been India whose exports shrank from over 100 Mn T in 2012 to less than 3 Mn T in 2018, but changes to the law and tax system there may encourage a recovery there. 

In this report we review recent data on output from the major producers in each country and estimate possible future output based on their current expansions where the Final Investment Decision has been made and engineering has begun. 
 
We then estimate the potential effect on the demand for ships based on the common size of ship used to load these cargoes and the common destinations for those cargoes.